All of Ireland will be screaming for Samcro and there’s no Cheltenham thrill like it

This approach works just as well for National Hunt races as it does for those on the flat, as example 6 perfectly demonstrates. After what has been a circuitous introduction even by my own highly verbose standards, it’s time for the meat. If you’ve got this far, I’m safely assuming you’re at least receptive to the notion that finding bargains is different from – and better than – buying cheap stuff. With that in mind, here are five angles I personally use when trying to isolate value; that is, before striking any bet. Arriving at a selection is also fun, the process taking a good bit longer than the actual event for most ‘serious recreationals’.

Legendary Channel 4 broadcaster dies aged 68 as tributes pour in

The silks are simply the colours each jockey will wear and denote who owns each horse, and then to the right we have the age of the horse and the weight they are set to carry in the race. Weights will vary if this race is a handicap – these are races in which horses are weighted according to their past performances – but in non-handicaps most horses will carry the same. Performances are influenced by factors such as a horse’s fitness, the distance of the race and whether the ground is soft and boggy or firm and fast. You can look at a horse’s past performances to work out whether the ground conditions will suit – and it’s understanding these crucial variables that can give punters the edge. VADREAM looks a spot of value to win this for a second time.

The jockeys’ championships

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Futurity Trophy Weekend 6f Handicap Trends

What is worth noting, however, is that 11 of the last 14 winners had raced fewer than ten times over fences and interestingly nine of the last 12 winners had worn some king of headgear (cheekpieces, hood or blinkers). Five of the last 13 winners had run in the Ultima Handicap the previous year. Willie Mullins naturally saddles a phalanx of blue bloods, and his first choice normally wins. Indeed, going back to Ebazayin, a 40/1 scorer for Mullins in 2007, that was his only – and therefore first choice – entry.

Grade 1 Races

They may look the same but horses, like human athletes, require certain conditions to produce their best. Usain Bolt may have been unbeatable over 100m, but he’d never have won a top race over a mile. Likewise, horses will have their own range of requirements, the two main ones being distance and ground. You can determine the conditions different horses like by looking at their past performances.

Bet £5 get £20 in Free Bets

No horse comes without some downsides and, as ever, the challenge is to weigh the negative against the prevailing odds. In my view, and that of most of the rest of the world, easily the three most likely winners are the trio at the head of the market; but their credentials are largely reflected in their prices. On his latest outing, Pats Fancy was a three length second to Bravemansgame in receipt of 16 pounds. His stable mate, Beatthebullet, is more than two stone ‘wrong’ with the top rated of these and appears to be the much maligned ‘social runner’. In that earlier preview, I found it impossible to oppose Honeysuckle. I still do, though after an electric gear change to settle the race last time she didn’t really stretch away as it appeared she might.

Horse Racing Tips: Fran Berry’s Friday night flutters at Dundalk

Elliott’s team, meanwhile, has been in top form despite the challenging circumstances. Who knows what impact the loss of key horses and the absence of the hitherto licence holder (and the new named holder) will have? Likely some, but probably not a huge amount is my best guess. Elliott has had three phenomenal CheltFests in the past four years, 2019 being a sharp reminder of the perils of blind backing a yard; and he’s had at least three winners in each of those years – 27 in all during that time. The trouble with highly rated winners of the Gold Cup is that their rating is testament to their ability and that, naturally, is not missed by the market.

• These older lads and lasses are now 0 from 24, though Faugheen looks a live chance in a novice chase, probably the Marsh (former JLT) this time around.
• This doesn’t look to be the deepest Novice hurdle so UNIVERSAL DAVE may well be able to shoulder a penalty and land a second career success.
• There is a lot of twaddle talked by so called experts about betting value.
• The ‘rise’ of Irish runners will be a theme of this piece, and this can be seen when we look at a year by year breakdown of clear favourites that were trained in Ireland.
• A hard task off top weight, but definitely one for those exacta and trifecta mixes.

UPCOMING RACE

FAMOUS CLERMONT is a tentative selection in a wide-open affair, following an effortless 18-length romp at Haydock. The winner of that contest in 2022 went on to follow up in the Albert Bartlett, as The Nice Guy improved hugely for the rise in distance at Cheltenham. It’s not beyond the realms of possibility that Seabank Bistro repeats the feat this time around and is worth a small each-way wager. The course which has produced the most winners of the Ayr Gold Cup is Goodwood, there has been a total number of 5 winners of this race who ran at Goodwood last time out. The next best courses which have produced the second most winners are Ripon and Haydock, there has been a total number of 3 winners from each of those courses. When looking at the over-rounds for the last 20 renewals, the most competitive market was in 2006 when the race had an over-round of 122%.

They’re off in the Champion Chase

Exhibit A to that end are the two races – both comfortable victories, in Grade 2 and Grade 1 company – in one month, the final month of last year. If that’s the good news, the less good news is that Exhibit B must likely follow this weekend at the (outright excellent) Dublin Racing Festival; and Exhibit C requires him to cross the Irish channel in mid-March sans sicknote. Any horse could come down or have a heart murmur in the heat of combat; Shishkin could get beaten by Energumene; a previously unsighted dark horse could emerge in one of the novice chases (though that feels unlikely). Unlike CPS, EA has been slated to start twice and has started – and finished first – twice. He’s had an incident-free prep thus far and has jumped really well in his three chase races to date.

Presenting Percy wins by several lengths

Shishkin is undeniably more of a horse than Footpad, and a tear up on the front end could see him record the largest winning distance of the meeting. He was never more than two or three lengths off the lead. In 2020, Al Boum Photo raced midfield but never more than about five lengths from a lead shared without contest; and the previous year, the same horse was ridden more patiently after a number of rivals battled for early primacy.

Futurity Trophy Weekend 6f Handicap Preview

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Bleu Berry wins the Coral Cup

Horses that raced outside Graded/Listed company have a poor record. The graph illustrates a clear upwards trajectory with the last four years averaging out at just under 20 per meeting (19.5 to be precise). Essentially this means that around 70% of all races in the past four years have had an Irish-trained favourite. Compare this to the first five years (2008 to 2012) where the average was 7.4. My main focus will be looking at the data as a whole – market factors, last time out (LTO) factors, etc.

• Likewise, horses will have their own range of requirements, the two main ones being distance and ground.
• If that’s your thing, let’s mess about with the concept for a minute.
• Asterion Forlonge – not on his feet for longe [harsh] – is a really talented horse who is probably just a bit soft.
• From micro representation this century, a six-year-old has won (Long Run, 2011), while the majority of winners are aged seven to nine, as are the majority of runners.
• Recent form shows how well they’ve been running, Last Run is the number of days since their last outing and the forecast is the forecast decimal odds according to Timeform.
• As a consequence, I went fishing for a wager in a different pond, the ‘without the favourite’ market.
• Tom Eaves winners have been with Nameitwhatyoulike (2015) and Magical Spirit (2021).
• The main danger is last term’s scorer Billaway, who relishes this stamina test.

Nicky Henderson and Willie Mullins each have nine, and the next best of Jonjo O’Neill, with four. Be wary of horses wearing headgear, especially blinkers or cheekpieces, in Open Grade 1’s at the Festival. The  link to this market (at the bottom, in the ‘lengthen the odds’ section) is here. His form this campaign is well clear of any other two mile chaser on either side of the Irish Sea.

Arkle Chase – Shishkin to win by six lengths-plus (10/3 Skybet)

LH – Thyme Hill form awful, the time was “glacial” 😆 Rain might be important for Gerri Colombe. Without rain, not sure he’ll enjoy downhill sections of the track. MT – Would love to own Hermes Allen, but wouldn’t run him in this race!

• Fourteen jump fixtures for us in the schedule for the week with a wide geographic spread.
• And all of them trained by Gordon Elliott (by proxy in one case), a man who trained a National winner before he’d trained a winner in his native Ireland.
• The only one really fitting the bill from a price perspective is Tanganyika who is second reserve.
• The course which has produced the most winners of the Ayr Gold Cup is Goodwood, there has been a total number of 5 winners of this race who ran at Goodwood last time out.
• Granary at Hunt Court, CheltenhamCosy and chic, the Granary at Hunt Court offers an idyllic escape.
• Min, who clocked a decent time at Leopardstown last time, could prove a bigger threat.
• However, having said that, taking the overall data into account, one could do worse than focusing attention on this price band.
• Live streaming is a major boon for horse racing fans, who might previously have had to check the results after the event, or make a trip to their local betting shop to watch the action unfold.

Ayr Gold Cup Preview

A year earlier, the first of Al Boum Photo’s brace of GC’s, an Irish-trained horse also ran second, with the remaining five raiders faring no better than 8th (three non-completions). Native River beat Might Bite for a British 1-2 in 2018, but prior to that it was Irish eyes smiling in both 2017 and 2016, where Team Green bagged the first four places home. The nearly-four-miler as it has become known is in many ways the bellwether for the meeting and indeed the sport. It’s a really tough heat with even fewer clues than your average Festival handicap.

The opening day always majors on speed, quality, and drama from the get-go, with a double-barrelled Grade 1 two-mile novice volley to kick us off. Irish-trained runners have more than twice the strike rate of their counterparts trained in UK. Moreover, they’ve enjoyed a 55p in the £ difference in their returns, and a clear differential between the A/E indices.

• If you’d had the proverbial crystal ball and been able to predict every front-runner at HQ since 2009, you’d have been on to a very good thing as you can see from the table below, taken from geegeez’ Query Tool.
• Of the home team, Edwardstone’s case dwarfs his compatriots, though it is possible that War Lord may significantly reduce the margin by which he was beaten in December.
• He’s got 149 here, as a result of both that win and the recalibration of Irish marks to British ones; while that seems a hefty enough elevation to overcome, the step back up to an extended three miles could be in his favour.
• We’ve another busy afternoon in store with seven LIVE ITV races spread across three tracks – Kempton, Lingfield and Newcastle.
• The 2m 4f distance should bring out more improvement in her.
• Most likely is that the top two in the betting will mark each other behind the rags, with Vauban expected to be ridden cold at the back of the field.
• A model of consistency, APT has yet to finish outside of the first three in 13 Rules starts.

Veneer of Charm wins the Fred Winter Handicap Hurdle

Going a step further, I’d favour run style over draw in certain scenarios which I’ll come on to. And I’d especially favour a horse from a wide gate with an ostensibly uncontested lead. A wide-open renewal of this race, but it is still very hard to get away from GOOBINATOR. Donald McCain’s 5-year-old finished 4th in the Cesarewitch behind Buzz at Newmarket last month, beaten 8-lengths and on that evidence, he looks to be exceptionally well-handicapped on a mark of 126 over hurdles. He won under Brian Hughes at Ayr last October, on the same mark as he can race off today and he looks to have a favourites chance.

Charlie Fellowes’ speedy mare won this in 2021 and grows an extra leg when the mud is flying. She has won three times on soft and heavy ground and conditions are in her favour. Again we see winners up and down the odds boards, with the sweet (but highly unpredictable and potentially coincidental) spot being north of 25/1 and south of 80/1. Those unconsidered athletes have bagged nine of the 50 races for a profit of 23 points at SP and 331 points at BSP (thanks almost entirely to one enormous return). Of the 964 runners in such races in the past ten years, 842 (87%) were aged five to eight (ignoring the Fred Winter). They won all bar two of the races (95%), and claimed 92% of the places.

The 39 in the last decade which didn’t were all unplaced bar one. Indeed, horses rated 140 or below, including those without a rating, are a combined seven from 308 for a loss at SP of 185 points. None of the 238 horses sent off at 25/1 or bigger managed to win an open Grade 1 at the last ten CheltFests. Moreover, only three priced bigger than 14/1 scored, from 335 to face the starter, with this group losing 274 points at SP. Meanwhile, those priced at 14/1 or shorter won 50 races from 300 starters, and lost just two points at SP. Chacun was imperious at Christmas, value for plenty more than the official six and a half lengths.

So the Irish are sending more runners than they did more than a decade ago, and are winning on average more often. LH – Worried about Mighty Potter potentially not handling the travel/prelims again after last year. Could be different story this time but he has to overcome that and is very short in the betting considering. Banbridge is more straightforward and Balco Coastal is interesting at a bigger price, too.

13 of the last 14 winners had finished top 4 in all completed Chases. All of the last 14 winners were aged 6-8yo (10/13 were 7yo’s). All of the last 14 winners had run in the previous day period. We provide racecards for fixtures on both At The Races and Racing UK, as well as for tomorrow’s racing – for racecards for tomorrow, just click the date selector and check tomorrow’s date.

Shishkin is now unbeaten in seven completed starts, having fallen on his hurdling debut. The main lesson of history is “don’t believe the hype”, a message that resonates far beyond Festival jollies but which was poignantly reprised twelve months ago when, of the six favourites sent off at 5/4 or shorter, five were beaten. It works as an index where, like IV, 1.00 is a par figure and better or worse than 1.00 is a degree of good or bad respectively. It’s calculation requires a little unpacking and, rather than do that here, you’re encouraged to look at this racing metrics article where I explain and exemplify each of IV, A/E and PRB in more detail. The key here is that north of 1.00 is good, south of 1.00 not so much. Happily, geegeez.co.uk publishes a few metrics that cut through the thorny thicket of quantifying these data, namely Impact Value, Percentage of Rivals Beaten, and Actual vs Expected.